Adam\’s Stream of Consciousness

If you blog it, they will come

  • October 2006
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The NFL Post – week 6

Posted by Adam on October 13, 2006

By this point in the season we have determined the good, the bad, and the ugly in the NFL.  Enter the middle third of the season, the least impactful part of the skid.  Sure these games count just as much as any others, but the new season air of whimsy has gone and it is not yet time for that final playoff push.  It’s no surprise that this weeks’ Monday night game features the Bears against the lowly Cardinals.  The games keep going though, despite a record six teams on bye this week, so let’s get into the picking.

How I Did

7-4-3 ATS, 14-0 straight up (32-37-5, 56-18 for the season).

What I Learned

The book makers are getting scary good.  Three pushes last week and another two games within .5 points.  That’s over a third of the games played.  Despite that I managed to get my first winning record versus the spread since week 2.  New Orleans looks like they are going to be competitive all season long, and Bruce Gradkowski looks like he may play himself into the full time starter in Tampa.

What Was Reinforced

Oakland is far and away the worst team in the league, but it wasn’t until this week that they got a spread that reflected that.  Also if you can’t play defense you aren’t going to win many games in this league.  Detroit, Green Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, and San Francisco would have a hard time stopping a division one college squad from scoring.

What To Expect

Last week was chalk.  Every favorite won.  Looking over the lines, this week could play out very similarly.  Baltimore, Dallas, and Washington should bounce back from tough losses.  Oakland should continue to lose.  Da Bears should continue to win.

The Picks

  • CIN -5 over TB
  • WAS -10.5 over TEN
  • HOU +13 over DAL (Dallas to win)
  • DET +1 over BUF
  • SEA -3 over STL
  • ATL -3 over NYG
  • PHI -3.5 over NO
  • BAL -3 over CAR
  • NYJ -2 over MIA
  • SD -10 over SF
  • PIT -6.5 over KC
  • OAK +15 over DEN (Denver to win)
  • CHI -11 over ARI

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