Adam\’s Stream of Consciousness

If you blog it, they will come

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Archive for October, 2006

The NFL Post – week 7

Posted by Adam on October 20, 2006

Getting lazy. Just a results/predictions shot this week.

How I Did

5-8 ATS, 8-5 straight up (37-45-5, 64-23 for the season).

The Picks

  • KC +5 over SD (SD to win)
  • JAX -9.5 over HOU
  • NE -5.5 over BUF
  • ATL +2.5 over PIT
  • MIA -5 over GB
  • PHI -5.5 over TB
  • NYJ -3.5 over DET
  • CAR +3 over CIN
  • DEN -4.5 over CLE
  • WAS +9 over IND (Indy to win)
  • SEA +6.5 over MIN
  • ARI -3 over OAK
  • DAL -3 over NYG
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The NFL Post – week 6

Posted by Adam on October 13, 2006

By this point in the season we have determined the good, the bad, and the ugly in the NFL.  Enter the middle third of the season, the least impactful part of the skid.  Sure these games count just as much as any others, but the new season air of whimsy has gone and it is not yet time for that final playoff push.  It’s no surprise that this weeks’ Monday night game features the Bears against the lowly Cardinals.  The games keep going though, despite a record six teams on bye this week, so let’s get into the picking.

How I Did

7-4-3 ATS, 14-0 straight up (32-37-5, 56-18 for the season).

What I Learned

The book makers are getting scary good.  Three pushes last week and another two games within .5 points.  That’s over a third of the games played.  Despite that I managed to get my first winning record versus the spread since week 2.  New Orleans looks like they are going to be competitive all season long, and Bruce Gradkowski looks like he may play himself into the full time starter in Tampa.

What Was Reinforced

Oakland is far and away the worst team in the league, but it wasn’t until this week that they got a spread that reflected that.  Also if you can’t play defense you aren’t going to win many games in this league.  Detroit, Green Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, and San Francisco would have a hard time stopping a division one college squad from scoring.

What To Expect

Last week was chalk.  Every favorite won.  Looking over the lines, this week could play out very similarly.  Baltimore, Dallas, and Washington should bounce back from tough losses.  Oakland should continue to lose.  Da Bears should continue to win.

The Picks

  • CIN -5 over TB
  • WAS -10.5 over TEN
  • HOU +13 over DAL (Dallas to win)
  • DET +1 over BUF
  • SEA -3 over STL
  • ATL -3 over NYG
  • PHI -3.5 over NO
  • BAL -3 over CAR
  • NYJ -2 over MIA
  • SD -10 over SF
  • PIT -6.5 over KC
  • OAK +15 over DEN (Denver to win)
  • CHI -11 over ARI

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The NFL Post – week 5

Posted by Adam on October 6, 2006

A quarter of the season has passed, so like every other sports site you may or may not visit I may as well gear my thoughts this week towards the season on the whole instead of the immediacy of the past seven days.  Same format as always.

How I Did

4-9-1 ATS, 10-4 straight up (25-33-2, 42-18 for the season).

What I Learned

Evidently not that much.  I feel pretty confident about choosing who the better teams in the games each week are, but how much better they are seems to be a challenge for me.  Baltimore and Chicago both were impressive in their victories, while Oakland and Miami were just as atrocious in losing.

What Was Reinforced

The NFL has been the pillar of parity in sports since the turn of the century, and the bulk of the league will be battling for the wildcard playoff spots in December.  I do feel, however, that the scary good and really awful has started to break away from the pack, so here is my version of the ubiquitous best and worst list thus far (and yes, I wrote this sentence just to use the word ubiquitous).  First the good, then the bad.

  1. Chicago – the top defense now has an offense to go along with it
  2. Indy – the top offense will carry them to a first round bye
  3. Baltimore – the AFC’s top defense has its best offense in years
  4. San Diego – really complete team that can’t be as unlucky as they were last season
  5. Seattle – a healthy Alexander is the key to this teams long term success
  1. Oakland – would three wins be a successful season at this point?
  2. Tennessee – rookie camp goes all season long
  3. Green Bay – absolutely no defense for Favre’s swan song
  4. San Francisco – similar to Green Bay, but their rebuilding got started last year
  5. Tampa Bay – unless Graodikndofinkseioski is Brady it’s gonna be a long season

What To Expect

Seattle and Chicago should run away in the NFC West and North respectively, but every other division has at least two teams who should push til the end:  Jacksonville will push Indy, Baltimore and Cincy will battle, the Jets won’t disappear from the Patriot’s rear view mirror, everyone but Oakland will beat each other up in the AFC West, same with everyone but Tampa in the NFC South, and it is anybody’s division in the NFC East.

The Picks

  • TEN +18.5 over IND (Indy to win)
  •  NYG -4 over WAS
  • MIN -6.5 over DET
  • NO -6.5 over TB
  • STL -3 over GB
  • MIA +10 over NE (New England to win)
  • CHI -10 over BUF
  • CLE +8 over CAR (Carolina to win)
  • JAX -7 over NYJ
  • KC -3.5 over ARI
  • SF -3 over OAK
  • PHI -1.5 over DAL
  • SD -3.5 over PIT
  • BAL +4 over DEN (Denver to win)

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