Adam\’s Stream of Consciousness

If you blog it, they will come

The NFL Post – week 3

Posted by Adam on September 22, 2006

The only post you can count on week in and week out is back.  It’s Friday.  Ain’t got no job.  Got shit to do.  Let’s get into the week 3 column!

How I Did

9-7 ATS, 13-3 straight up (16-16, 22-10 for the season).  There’s a reason for the spread.

What I Learned

When taking the points, also pick the underdog to win outright.  That was the case last week when Kansas City was the only team that beat the spread but did not win their game.  I had thought the spreads were too lofty for this early in the season, but that is why I make my picks on a blog and not for a casino.  I also learned that Buffalo and Tampa have absolutely no offense this season; Houston, Arizona, and Washington can’t play defense; and Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Baltimore are gonna be a lot better than I expected.

What Was Reinforced

This is not your early turn of the century Patriots team.  They will struggle to beat the elite teams in close games.  Oakland, Green Bay, and Tennessee are going to be real bad this year.  I picked them to win a combined 10 games, and they may not even reach that paultry total.  Injuries continue to hit hard early in the season.  No Trent, no Steve, and a very banged up Cadillac meant losses for KC, Carolina, and Tampa respectively.

What to Expect

Nine of the 14 games this week are inter-divisional match-ups.  Even if these games seem lopsided on paper, a team will always step it up against a regional foe (especially at home).  New England, Chicago, Seattle, and Cincinnati also get their first real tests of the year on Sunday.  At least one of the four will lose.

The Picks

  • NYJ +6 over BUF
  • PIT -2 over CIN
  • IND -7 over JAX
  • MIA -11 over TEN
  • WAS -4 over HOU
  • CHI -3.5 over MIN
  •  CAR -3 over TB
  • DET -6.5 over GB
  • BAL -6.5 over CLE
  • ARI -4.5 over STL
  • SEA -3.5 over NYG
  • PHI -6 over SF
  • NE -6.5 over DEN
  • NO +4 over ATL

2 Responses to “The NFL Post – week 3”

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