Adam\’s Stream of Consciousness

If you blog it, they will come

The NFL Post – week 2

Posted by Adam on September 15, 2006

Heading into the second week of the season, my weekly look ahead gets its first official dry run.  As opposed to last week’s preview of the whole season, this time we switch to what should be the standard format.  Enjoy.

How I Did

7-9 ATS, 9-7 straight up.  An auspicious start to say the least, but it could’ve been worse.

What I learned

The first few weeks of the NFL season are an oddsmaker’s nightmare.  The lines for last week were by and large miniscule, mostly due in part to the uncertainty of the fresh start to the season.  An uncertainty that can be backed up by the fact that seven “favorites” lost last week.  I think the main thing I will take away from week one though is that injuries to key players can totally transform a team.  Granted the Chiefs were behind at the time, but  losing Trent Green completely haulted any progress for their offense.  Likewise, Carolina looks like a totally different team without Steve Smith on offense.  These are things to consider when picking this week’s winners.

What Was Reinforced

A good defense will always win out over a good offense, and a bad defense will win out over a bad offense as well.  Chicago, Baltimore, and San Diego were dominant in their inagural games because of their D.  Detroit and Atlanta were also able to beat the spread thanks in large part to impressive efforts while not having possession of the football.  When in doubt, go with the better defense.

What to Expect

If last week’s point spreads were cautiously small, it seems that oddsmakers have decided to make wild lines this week based on week one’s results.  Five games have lines over 10 points and only five are under five points.  Again I feel this goes back to the early season uncertainty.  I do not expect everyone who looked great last week to keep up the act this week or vice versa though.  Expect another week with a fair share of “upsets”.

The Picks

Remember that all picks are ATS and straight up, unless otherwise noted.

  • OAK +12 over BAL (BAL to win the game)
  • HOU +13.5 over IND (IND to win)
  • CIN -10 over CLE
  • MIA -6.5 over BUF
  • DET +8.5 over CHI (CHI to win)
  • MIN (PK) over CAR
  • PHI -3 over NYG
  • TB +5.5 over ATL (ATL to win)
  • NO -2 over GB
  • STL -3 over SF
  • SEA -7 over ARI
  • NE -6 over NYJ
  • SD -11.5 over TEN
  • KC +10.5 over DEN (DEN to win)
  • DAL -6 over WAS
  • JAX +2.5 over PIT

One Response to “The NFL Post – week 2”

  1. very interesting I think you will do well this week!
    you’d probably easily win my pool with those picks 😛


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